India–U.S. Trade Deal: The Next Big Shift in Global Supply Chains
The India–U.S. trade negotiations are finally approaching a breakthrough. After months of backand-forth, both sides have aligned on key tariff and technology issues — signaling that a “Phase 1” agreement may be signed in the coming weeks.
This deal isn’t just about trade flows. It’s about realigning global supply chains in an era where resilience, regional diversification, and cost competitiveness define success.
Our latest analysis shows clear momentum in industrial goods, semiconductors, and defense manufacturing, where tariff cuts and technology cooperation could reshape sourcing decisions across the Indo-Pacific. Sharp negotiation of using corn, soy from American Farmers for Ethanol production helps the administration it’s key farmers constituents. At the same time, energy collaboration — particularly around LNG and clean technology — could strengthen bilateral supply stability.
Still, challenges remain.
- Agriculture use of Corn and Soy is not likely to feature in this month’s agreement as India needs Non-GMO products with specific certification. American farmers do not produce enough of it to be of utility.
- Digital trade and data governance will take longer to align given policy sensitivities on both sides.
Based on recent developments, we estimate a 65–80 % probability that a partial agreement will be signed within the next month — a significant step toward restoring preferential trade access and enabling industry-specific tariff savings.
Summary of sector-wise probabilities and progress in the table below:
India–U.S. Trade Agreement Status (Update – 10-29-25)
